28 February 2026 *Article updated as Iran confirms the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, originally denied it
The United States has declared war on Iran with Operation Epic Fury. President Trump stated that the US would target Iran’s missile inventory and missile manufacturing capacity. Trump also stated that the US will target Iran’s navy and the terrorist proxy network that Iran has established throughout the Middle East.
Decapitation strikes are occurring against Iran’s military and government leadership. There are reports that strikes have occurred that targeted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Pakpour. Both Israel and the US claim that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an airstrike. The Iranian government originally refuted the claim, but later confirmed it.
There have been reports that the Iranian-backed Iraqi armed group, Kataib Hezbollah, has been targeted. Kataib Hezbollah announced its intention to target American military bases due to American aggression. The estimated size of Kataib Hezbollah ranges from 5,000 to 30,000 members, but it is believed to be closer to 10,000. There have been no reports, yet, of attacks on American bases by the group.
In retaliation, Iran fired missiles towards US targets throughout the Middle East. It is the only card the Iranian regime can play in the short term. In the long run, it could support al-Qaeda and make it its Axis of Resistance 2.0.
The US and Israel are conducting airstrikes on Iran as US President Trump calls for regime change.
“Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It
will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked America for help, but you never received it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond.
America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Iran is not Venezuela.
The Trump administration conducted a decisive, limited operation against Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. The objective was to disrupt the capital’s air defences, insert a special forces team at President Maduro’s compound and extract him and place him in American judicial custody. The Trump administration then sought to make a deal with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez. The Maduro regime remained intact, except for Maduro himself. The Trump administration believed it could exert pro-American policies through the new Rodriguez regime, using the threat of force and coercion. There is no indication that there are any Iranian government officials willing to work with the US, as it been portrayed as the Great Satan.
Iran is not Iraq.
There is no coalition of ground forces that will dismantle the regime’s governing structures, create an occupation force to provide security, and allow the establishment of a new government and the transition of authority to it. US and Israeli action will be limited to airstrikes only. The Iranian regime’s future rests with an uprising from the civilian population or a military coup. There is a lack of coordination of an official opposition. The US could seek to reinstall Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlaviv, but that also may divide Iran more than it will unite it.
Iran is not Libya
In 2011, NATO conducted Operations Odyssey Dawn and Unified Protector to protect civilians from Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s government forces. The air campaign’s ultimate mission was for regime change.
Unlike Iran, Libya had a rebel force, but by mid-March, Qaddafi’s forces had regained most of the country. NATO conducted airstrikes to diminish and degrade Qaddafi’s forces and provided air support for ground operations that rebel groups were carrying out.
A significant proportion of Qaddafi’s forces was composed of ethnic Tuaregs from Mali. After the regime fell, many Tuaregs took small arms, explosives and some heavier weaponry back to Mali to lead a new Tuareg uprising. It may not be an ethnic possibility, but the migration of former Iranian military personnel and weapons is. The Taliban stated that they would be open to supporting Iran with shelter. Transferring weapons to Iraq and helping support Iranian-backed militias could be another option.
Libya has become a quagmire for regional powers to meddle in and support various groups. It was in a state of civil war from 2011 to 2020. There are many regional actors, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, to name a few, that would seek an Iranian group that would support their interests.
However, in Iran, there is no armed rebel force battling government forces. Only protestors are willing to risk their lives and go out onto the streets. But is that enough? The Iranian regime demonstrated that it is willing to kill its citizens to hold onto power. It even transferred Iraqi militias to help quell them.
Iran is not Libya, Iraq, nor Venezuela – that is the worrying thing. At least there was a plan for the day after for those regime-changing conflicts.
Having no “day after” plan, other than hoping that the people of Iran will finish the job — is not enough. The regime only needs to survive to win.
Feature Photo: “Screenshot of US CENTCOM release of Iranian targets destroyed” – US CENTCOM, 2026