The latest India-Pakistan conflict is continuing, but it is in a very different form. French intelligence claims that Chinese embassies are working on discrediting the French Rafale fighter and attempting to impede any additional sales of the fighter jet. China aims for its J-10 to be a prime candidate for non-Western procurement competitions – the same aircraft that Pakistan has equipped itself with.
According to French military and intelligence officials, Chinese embassies have been spreading doubts and concerns over the Rafale’s performance in the wake of India’s Operation Sindoor, which saw Pakistan downing three of the aircraft. The Dassault Rafale is considered the backbone of the Indian Air Force. French officials were concerned about the fate of the Rafales in Operation Sindoor and how they were shot down, as this was the first time a Rafale had been shot down. The Rafale had seen two decades of conflict across various environments. India did not want to disclose that information to France and refused French auditors access to examine Indian data. This may have been a diplomatic maneuver to press France into handing over the source code.
France is not willing to hand over access to the source code to the Indian government. Mainly, because Dassault does not want India to be able to integrate other weapons into the fighter jet, such as Indian produced missiles and bombs. It would also allow India to tweak the mission systems and avionics suites. It is common practice for a defence company to withhold permission to source code for fighter jets. One only needs to look at the F-35 as an example.
India believes that if they had the source code, things would have been different with Operation Sindoor, but there are other theories and explanations. One theory gained international attention when Captain Shiv Kumar, of the Indian Navy, made a presentation in Indonesia, stating that India lost the Rafales in combat due to political constraints, as the Indian Air Force was not permitted to target Pakistani air defences and military installations. However, concerns over how the aircraft performed during Operation Sindoor against Chinese aircraft and missiles became one of China’s primary targets for the Rafale discrediting campaign. However, Indonesia signed a letter of intent on 29 May to procure an additional 18 Rafale jets, in addition to the previous order of 42 fighter jets placed in 2022. Deliveries are expected early next year. The discreditation campaign continues and is likely to gain a sympathetic ear.
Dassault is a tool for the French defence industry to create ties with other nations, but it is not owned by the French government, unlike some of the French defence companies. In 1998, it transferred its shares of Dassault Aviation (45.76% stake) into Aerospatiale, which is now Airbus after several mergers. This would not be the only French government-owned defence industry business. France did own Nexter, which produced armoured vehicles. In 2015, Nexter merged with the German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, but the French government still maintains a 50% stake in the company. At the very least, it cannot be seen as a direct attack on the French government’s coffers, but it is an attack on the French economy and foreign relations.
For China, the French Rafale is the primary competitor for those outside of close Western and American ties. The French Rafale has leveraged its French and colonial relations and has also emerged as a serious contender in other procurements. Unfortunately, Peru recently chose Sweden’s Gripen over the French Rafale and the American F-16 and will be purchasing 24 Gripens. However, it does demonstrate how global Dassault has been in its procurement bids.
There is a new reality, though, and that is that other countries have equipped Pakistan, making it a potential testing ground. India’s Lieutenant General Rahul R. Singh, Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Capability Development and Sustenance), stated that India is not just competing with Pakistan, but also with China and Turkey, as they are key military suppliers to Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Air Force was equipped with the Chinese Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter jet, armed with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles. Pakistan has also procured Türkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 combat drone, which has even inspired a new Ukrainian folksong. The proven capabilities of these weapon systems and the political malleability of these two countries mean that new defence deals can be made. China’s more advanced weapons systems, such as the J-10, have a further advantage as countries that relied on Russian weapon systems cannot be readily provided for. As the West rearms, there will also be additional constraints on Western defence companies, as industrial capacity will be allocated to Western contracts.
China’s discrediting campaign signals a new chapter in China’s global economic plans. Defence deals are big business, but they also improve diplomatic and economic ties. This may signal a more aggressive China in its approach to the Global South. Chinese fighter jets are already in the inventories of some countries. Several African countries, including Nigeria, Egypt, Namibia, Sudan, Botswana, Tanzania, and Angola, may be interested in the J-10 and its accompanying weaponry, such as the PL-15. Russia has struggled to secure advanced procurement deals overseas. This presents an opportunity that China can capitalize on.
The interesting thing would be to what degree China places operational limitations on. The Russia-Ukraine War has been eye-opening when it comes to the constraints imposed due to permissions. The transfer of weapons systems cannot take place until all major parties who have components in them have signed off on it. Or the use of those weapons is constricted because of those parties. It is foreseeable that an African conflict could be stymied due to Chinese constraints on weapon systems, just as those constraints could be for the West. But if China were the primary weapons supplier to conflict zones, any Western influence could very well be eroded for Chinese political and economic gains.
The Chinese campaign against the French Rafale is another chess move, as Russia cannot provide similar equipment due to the sanctions. Capacity will soon be fulfilled for many of the West’s main fighter jet and advanced weapon system companies as we drive towards rearmament.
Featured Image: “Rafale” – Wikimedia Commons, 2025