Two reports released this year – AI 2027 and Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question – deserve far more attention than they’ve received. Alongside Could Canada Be a Failed State? by our Associate Editor, Chris Murray, they paint a troubling picture of where Canada may be headed. While each paper focuses on different domains – AI risk, social collapse, institutional dysfunction – their conclusions converge: Canada is on a negative trajectory, and the future will bring severe disruption unless decisive action is taken.
The Coming AI Disruption
AI 2027 warns of the global rise of artificial superintelligence (ASI) as early as 2027 and describes a future in which the United States and China engage in an AI arms race. This leads to mass economic disruption, and the choices made by a few individuals lead either to unchecked AI acceleration or carefully governed development, a choice that could determine the fate of our species. It’s easy to dismiss as sci-fi alarmism, but there is a growing consensus that transformative AI is coming soon, and the consequences will be enormous.
Take former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s recent prediction that ASI could arrive by 2035. Even if you think 2027 is too aggressive, that’s not a comforting timeline. The pace of AI development is accelerating, and the stakes are existential. If even a fraction of these forecasts proves true, Canada must take necessary steps to avoid the worst outcomes. The country cannot afford to be a passive bystander in an AI race between China and the United States. Yet today, that’s precisely where it is.
On Artificial Intelligence: Canada Must Act
Canada has Nobel laureates, world-class research hubs (Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton), and relatively large AI companies like Celestica. The government announced a $2 billion compute fund and a billion-dollar supercomputer project. But let’s be honest, $3 billion is a rounding error compared to the hundreds of billions or trillions that US Big Tech or China’s state-led AI push will sink into the technology. Current AI architecture relies on scale, and Canada cannot compete on scale. To avoid becoming a technological vassal of the U.S. or China, Canadian researchers should focus on the development of new AI architectures that do not require hundreds of billions of dollars to build out. At the same time, Canada should export the physical ingredients of AI to hungry countries and companies with big wallets. If the country cannot build the dominant AI models, it can become the irreplaceable supplier of the materials the US requires.
Canada’s Advantage: Natural Resources
The country holds vast, untapped wealth of natural resources valued at $1.7 trillion – at least. 32 minerals form the building blocks of the AI supply chain from semiconductors to supercomputers, and Canada has most of them. The country is home to about half of the world’s publicly listed mining and mineral exploration companies, an enviable position. It’s also very fortunate to be so close to the country that is at the forefront of the AI revolution – America. Some of this natural resource wealth can be used to fund AI research.
Yet Canada’s mining sector is hamstrung by chronic delays and capital shortages.
Problem 1: Speed
It currently takes 10 to 15 years to bring a mine online in Canada. Why? Are Canadian geologists uniquely slow? Like most things in Canada, it’s the fault of bureaucracy: Federal and provincial red tape has paralyzed the sector.
Solution: Cut permitting and regulatory timelines. There is no technical reason it should take a decade or more. Stop pretending otherwise.
Problem 2: Cost
Mining in the North, where large deposits of resources are located, is up to 2.5 times more expensive than in southern Canada. Seventy percent of that cost is due to inadequate infrastructure. The North lacks roads, power grids, and basic logistics support. This discourages exploration and inflates the cost of resource extraction.
Solution: Invest billions in infrastructure – ports, roads, rails, and energy – particularly in the North. This would not only unlock mineral wealth but also secure Canadian sovereignty in increasingly strategic Arctic regions.
Economic Security is National Security
The minerals and metals sector contributes over $117 billion to Canada’s GDP, supports over 700,000 jobs (direct and indirect), and is the top employer of Indigenous peoples. At $144,630, the average annual total compensation per job in the mining industry is almost twice the all-industry average of $76,208. With economic stagnation predicted in 2040, this is an industry that can help Canadians increase their wealth and quality of life. However, for the actual value of these resources to be unlocked, the country must focus on refining materials, not simply exporting raw materials to other countries.
As global warming opens the Northwest Passage and great-power competition intensifies, Canada must occupy and secure its North. The best way to do that? Economic presence – especially mining. Mining infrastructure, including ports in the far north, will allow the Canadian government to charge container ships billions in transit fees.
National Mining Champions
To finance this vision, Canada must create a Sovereign Resource Fund – a federally backed vehicle to aid consolidation between Canadian mining firms, especially those involved in critical minerals, and develop globally competitive “mining champions.” These firms would enjoy scale advantages, greater resilience to commodity shocks, and better access to capital markets.
There must be a focus on building refining capacity for everything Canada produces – from energy to rare earths.
And while some regulations must be loosened, accountability must rise. Environmental violations should result in C-suite liability. Athenian generals were held to account for their failures – so should corporate leaders.
The Realism of Interests
Canada must also shed illusions about a benevolent, rules-based international order. As Lord Palmerston said in 1848: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” The same applies today. No country trades on values alone – not the U.S., not Europe, not China.
Canada must therefore look inward and think in terms of its self-interest. The time for polite, incremental change is over. The threats posed by AI disruption, social decay, and geopolitical instability are perhaps the most dangerous situation that Canada has ever faced.
If Canada wants to take its national destiny seriously, it must:
- Slash red tape in mining approvals.
- Invest massively in infrastructure, especially in the North.
- Create national champions in critical minerals.
- Use resource wealth to fund and fuel Canadian AI development and make Canadians wealthy.
Recognize that economic strength without military security is ultimately fragile.
Feature Photo: “Ammolite Mining“, Wikimedia Commons, 2025