12 November 2024
Russia’s ongoing counteroffensive in the Kursk region will have consequences with Donald Trump’s upcoming second presidency. At the moment, Russia is amassing a force of 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers. The counteroffensive is expected to begin before winter sets in. This will be a pivotal moment for Ukraine, but also for its relations with the new incoming Trump administration.
Russia has been regaining the territory which it lost to Ukraine’s surprise incursion into the Kursk region. It has been a slow retake. The gains have been similar to that of the rest of the Ukrainian front as Russia is making slow, but steady gains along the front. Unlike, the Donbas and Donetsk regions, the Kursk region has open terrain that is more suitable for quick armoured advances, but now armoured vehicles and infantry are bogged down in the autumn rains and mud, and wheeled-armoured vehicles like those deployed by Ukraine are having much difficultly in the deep, thick mud. Ukrainian forces continue to seize territory in the region when they can, but the initial territorial gains are degraded.
The issue, of course, is how much territory Ukraine can hold of until Trump takes office. Zelenskyy will make the case that Ukraine’s arms have been tied behind its back due to the limitations that the US has placed on using American weapons against targets within Russia’s territory. He will also point out that the arms and equipment pledged are not arriving within a respectable amount of time and pledges are unfilled.
It will be an uphill battle for Zelenskyy as Trump has touted his delusion that he will end the war within 24 hours. Incumbent Vice President Vance has been hostile to Ukrainian aid and there is a leaked plan of creating a demilitarized border zone between Ukraine and Russia that would be overseen by European soldiers.
Trump’s win sent shock waves. NATO, European states, and many other countries have been trying to “Trump-proof” their policy stances for months. Europe is now scrambling to figure out how to provide the weapons and supplies needed for Ukraine. But there is already a policy win for Trump – European defence spending. Trump is known to be proud of how his stance emboldened European states to increase their defence spending. Many NATO states did not meet their 2 percent commitment to NATO; emboldening Trump’s accusations of Europe being a US defence freeloader. Trump can gleefully point to that policy win, although Russia conducting a full-scale invasion prompted the European response.
There is a policy option where European members can procure weapons and ammunition from the United States for Ukraine. It is a transactional stance which Trump can, most likely, get behind. European money entering the US economy to provide security to Ukraine. It may also alleviate concerns over Trump’s tariff stance.
Trump’s first administration laid out the plans for the US to withdraw from Afghanistan. The Biden administration oversaw the withdrawal that was negotiated and it was a total colossal failure that will haunt that administration into history. The probability of Trump continuing to support Ukraine does seem unlikely. However, it is not improbable.
It is part of Trump’s personality that he does not want to lose. Even his strange behaviour this election surrounding his rally sizes demonstrates this. One of the traits of the previous Trump presidency was that there was an air that politics was based on how he was perceived and how others personally treated him.
Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory!
I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 6, 2024
President Zelenskyy already reached out to Trump using a special narrative – using Trumpian words. Zelenskyy stated that Trump’s victory was impressive and that he appreciated Trump’s “peace through strength” approach. Zelenskyy further praised Trump’s decisive leadership, and it will be a strong era under Trump. Zelenskyy is trying to position himself as an ally of Trump and also trying to demonstrate his commitment to him. This is the politics of Trump and his foreign policy.
There has been a level of collaboration between China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Iran’s Axis of Resistance has crippled global shipping and started the latest war with Israel after the 7 November attacks. Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and missiles, while China has assisted Russia’s military industry and North Korea has supplied Russia with artillery ammunition, missiles and now the troops essential to Russia’s Ukraine War.
Trump needs to know that dismantling this new coalition will strengthen America and provide that legacy that Trump desires. Assistance to Ukraine is not dead; it just needs to be reframed.
Featured Image: “Trump and Zelenskyy – c. 2019”, Wikimedia Commons, 2024