3 February 2025
“The whole Continent of North-America appears to me destined by Divine Providence to be people by one Nation—speaking one language—professing one general System of religious and political principles and accustomed to one general tenor of social usages and customs—For the Common happiness of them all, for their Peace and Prosperity, I believe it indispensable that they should be associated in one federal Union…”
John Quincy Adams, who would later become the sixth President of the United States, wrote that in 1811, to his father, John Adams, the second President (1797-1801). A year later, the United States began the War of 1812.
It is now 2025, and the American President, Donald Trump, has spoken openly and repeatedly of absorbing Canada – though he has publicly said he would only use economic coercion to enact this. There are many reasons – not least completing the dream of Manifest Destiny – for Trump to want Canada as his 51st state, but he has identified Canada’s weak military as one of them.
While Trump is known for hyperbole, when he speaks of Canada’s weak military, he might actually be understating the situation. Canada’s military is in awful shape. Most of Canada’s major fleets are unavailable or unserviceable. On average, only 45 percent of Canada’s air force fleet is operational, while the Royal Canadian Navy can operate at 46 percent of its capacity and the army at 54 percent. There is also a recruitment crisis.
Trump 2.0 is planning to set tariffs of 25 percent on all Canadian goods to show his displeasure towards his northern neighbour by February 1st. With a far more experienced team surrounding him – and a bone to pick – it’s reasonable to assume he will follow through on his threat.
I believe that Trump just wants a useful neighbour to the north, not one the Americans need to babysit. One that will take northern and Arctic security seriously and build the necessary infrastructure to protect it. There’s always the possibility that he just wants it, but I’m operating on the assumption that he wants a stronger Canada to pull its weight. That is something Canadians should want. The threats – not just from the US – are real.
The threat of tariffs increases the urgency for Canada to move at speed – something Canadian policymakers seem allergic to – to exert sovereignty over the North. The Americans are taking Arctic policy seriously with their fixation on Greenland. A phone call with Danish diplomats made it clear Trump remains serious about acquiring Greenland. Should Canada remain a weakness in Arctic defence over the 21st century, it becomes increasingly likely the Americans will take action – including a potential takeover of Canada.
Canada’s vast northern and Arctic territories cover some 40 percent of the country’s land mass and contain many billions in mineral and energy resources. A 2009 report by the US Geological Survey estimated the Arctic holds 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of the world’s natural gas, offering a financial windfall for any country that develops it. Moreover, Canada’s claims to the Northwest Passage (NWP), a shipping route which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and makes shipping shorter and cheaper for companies travelling from Asia to North America, are disputed by the US. The NWP is expected to be open for four months a year by 2100. If these projections hold, transporting goods from Europe to the Far East via the NSR could be 25 percent more profitable than the Suez Canal Route for shipping companies – and pay fees to Canada for transit.
Houthi attacks have led to ships going around the Cape of Good Hope, spiking the price of shipping. While shipping companies expect to return to the Suez Canal, it’s perhaps unwise to hope for peace and stability in the Middle East over the long term. As this century unfolds, shipping will almost certainly shift north. Despite this, Canada has done almost nothing to secure what will be a vital economic artery of the future. In terms of infrastructure, there is just a single deepwater port in the three northern territories (at Iqaluit in Nunavut), while the closest search and rescue centers are in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Trenton, Ontario. Both of these are well beneath the Arctic Circle.
Canada has been building the Nanisivik naval refuelling station in Nunavut, but it has been plagued by delays. The $130 million facility was scheduled to open in 2018 and is still not operational. When completed, the facility will be a refuelling point for vessels from the Canadian Navy and Coast Guard, though it will only be staffed for half the year.
The CAF’s Joint Task Force North (JTFN), which comprises 340 military and civilian personnel and is headquartered in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, is responsible for most Canadian military operations north of the 60th parallel, the southern border of the three territories. JTFN also has detachments in Iqaluit, Nunavut, and Whitehorse, Yukon. There are also around 2,000 mainly Indigenous Canadian Rangers (and 1,400 junior Rangers) from 1 Canadian Ranger Patrol Group in 44 patrols located in 65 communities across the north. Their duties include reporting unusual activities; surveillance and sovereignty patrols; search and rescue; disaster relief; and support of Armed Forces operations and survival training.
By contrast, Russia has prioritized the military and economic development of the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Vladimir Putin has stressed the NSR’s strategic importance, and Russia’s development plan for 2035 includes $19 billion in infrastructure investments. In 2007, Russian submarines planted a Russian flag on the Nole Pole, essentially claiming the Arctic for Russia. From 2011 to 2015, the Russian Arctic doctrine focused on establishing new ports, customs facilities, and marine checkpoints along the Arctic Coastline to attract commercial traffic through the NSR.
By 2019, Russia had established 14 airfields, six military bases, refurbished 16 Soviet-era deep-water ports, and 10 border posts in the Arctic, with its Northern Fleet boasting an estimated 120 ships, including 40 icebreakers, vastly outnumbering NATO’s tiny fleet of icebreakers. Russia also has more ground-force bases than NATO within the Arctic Circle. In 2021, the Northern Fleet became the fifth separate military district in Russia, showing the importance placed on the Arctic, though it is largely concentrated in the Kola Peninsula bordering Finland, Sweden and Norway.
Chinese state-owned energy enterprises have also invested billions of dollars in Russian oil and gas ventures and mineral projects in the Arctic and Russia also allowed the People’s Republic of China to construct docks at five of the most significant ports along Russia’s Arctic coastline.
These tangible commitments show just how serious Russia is about staking its claims to the Arctic and ensuring it has the military muscle to defend it should conflict occur. The string of new and upgraded Soviet-era airstrips along its northern coast has improved Russia’s ability to operate in the Arctic. In March 2021, a pair of MiG-31 fighter jets made a demonstration flight from Nagurskoye, its northernmost base, to the North Pole and back.
Though the war in Ukraine has depleted the Northern Fleet’s most capable conventional forces, nuclear submarines, radar stations, airfields, and missile facilities remain in the Arctic. Another consequence of its war in Ukraine is that large Russian infrastructure projects in the Arctic have been put on hold as sanctions have dried up funding for anything besides war materiel.
Nevertheless, Russia is in a strong position, with half of the total Arctic territory and a majority of the Arctic population. Just Murmansk oblast has a population of approximately 787,000, which is almost eight times the Canadian Arctic or almost double the population of the Norwegian Arctic. Much of this development is possible because of the infrastructure built for natural resource extraction.
Canada’s low Arctic population is a clear issue. The other Arctic nations have larger populations – both in numbers and as a percentage of their total populations. 75 percent of the Canadian population is based within 100 miles (160km) of the United States border, more than 1,000 miles (1600km) beneath the Arctic Circle. Its Arctic population of the three territories numbers only around 100,000. That is less than 0.3 percent of Canada’s total population.
Across the ocean, Norway’s Arctic counties (Nordland, Troms and Finnmark) hold 10 percent of Norway’s total population and are well integrated into the national economy such that there is no marked difference between the Norwegian Arctic and the rest of Norway. The only way to encourage Canadians to move north is to create economic opportunity.
Were a conflict to occur today, Russia – even though it has devoted the largest share of its military resources to a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine – has clear advantages. A nation’s first duty to its citizens is protection and the Canadian military will be unable to perform this essential duty in the event of a war in the Arctic.
Western, and particularly Canadian, investment in the North and Arctic is lagging far behind Russia. How, then, can Canada possibly catch up when the Russians have such a head start?
Looking at Russian developments, it is clear that stimulating economic activity in the region is a good start. It is certainly physically and financially possible for Canada to develop the North; Canadian history shows that is the case. It is simply a matter of political will to accomplish it. Following the Second World War, the federal government invested in infrastructure to support the mining and oil sectors in the territories. Roads, ports, airports, power and housing were all constructed with federal funding and mining towns were established. That support dried up in the 1970s as political priorities changed.
While the devolution of powers to Indigenous groups and mineral rights may complicate negotiations, stressing the financial windfall and ensuring environmental cleanups should convince most stakeholders.
Returning federal support to the Northern territories to support and invigorate commercial activity is the first step in making up for a 50-year gap in infrastructure spending in the North. Decades of little to no federal support have meant private companies must pay upfront for all their infrastructure costs, decreasing their margins and making projects riskier. The North’s infrastructure deficit adds significant costs, with exploration costs up to six times higher than in the South. Mine capital costs are up to 2.5 times more, and operating costs are 30 to 60 percent higher. Today, remote mines must look after themselves entirely as there are no power grids to connect to.
Because transport is impossible for most of the year, all fuel and supplies must be brought in on ice roads in the winter months and large storage sites must be constructed to store an entire year’s worth of consumables for the mine workers. To support their workers, recreation and medical facilities must also be constructed. This naturally increases upfront costs for any mining venture, which has an impact on profit margins that are already razor-thin. The outcome is many deposits, despite their quality, are left untouched because they are too expensive to mine.
Canadian industry has already identified the highest-priority road and energy infrastructure projects, making the task of government relatively simple: just pay for it. Some of these projects include the Mackenzie Valley Highway and the Grays Bay Road and Port. Aside from construction, federal support in the form of tax credits and funding assistance should also be provided.
This will increase the profit margins for Canadian mining projects, spur investment in the mining sector and increase tax revenues for the government and Indigenous groups. As all the land in the three territories is either federal or Indigenous, the main beneficiaries are the government or Indigenous groups and the mining companies act as contractors who mine the resources for a fee.
The mining industry does not expect billions in infrastructure for free. A situation where the federal government foots the bill for the major infrastructure will allow mining activity to proceed, enabling the infrastructure costs to be paid off over several years as an operating cost.
The vast resources of Canada can be unlocked by installing the infrastructure necessary to extract it and produce value-added goods from it. Consistent investment over time and access to large tracts of land for exploration is needed to reverse the long-term decline in proven and probable reserves. Identifying new reserves so that they may be mined and subsequently used in the economy requires investment in both exploration and mining development.
Once that infrastructure is put in place—and even when the mines have closed—it will benefit the regional economy long term. Future military installations will also benefit from this proximity to commercial activity, as they will have supply routes and civilian infrastructure near them.
On the military side, the construction of year-round military bases, airfields, and ports will enable Canadian military force projection in the region should a conflict with Russia – or China – occur. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Canada has made pledges to increase military spending, with funding for an early warning radar system for NORAD and surveillance planes to detect submarines. However, given Canada’s track record with military purchases, it’s anyone’s guess how long these will take to materialize.
Fortunately, the Russian adventurism in Ukraine has opened a window of opportunity for Canada and NATO in the Arctic. While Russian equipment remains in the Arctic, the majority of its soldiers have been committed to Ukraine, and its large infrastructure projects have been halted. The longer Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, the longer Canada has to improve its situation in the Arctic.
Even if Trump succeeds in ending the Ukraine conflict, there will still likely be a lag time before Russia can reconstitute its forces and re-focus its attention north. With an election coming this year and likely new leadership under the Conservatives, Canada has the opportunity to reinvigorate its Northern military strategy, infrastructure and economy to deliver security and prosperity for Canadians in the decades and centuries to come. If the next government does not take this necessary action, the Russian lead in the Arctic may be too great to overcome. In such harsh conditions, responding from an inferior position makes the task far greater than it would otherwise be. In that scenario, an American takeover of Canada should not be dismissed.
Special thanks to Tom Hoefer and Doug Matthews for explaining the history and concerns of the mining industry.
Feature Photo: Canadian Ranger Solomon Awa demonstrates igloo building to students of the Air Operations Survival (AOS) Course in Resolute Bay, Nunavut, January 28, 2020 – Cpl Brian Lindgren, Canadian Armed Forces photo – CombatCamera, 2025