27 January 2025
This week, despite EU protests, Kosovo has moved forward with the closure of parallel institutions used by the country’s ethnic Serb minority. This, as an election observation mission of 100 observers has been set up by the European Union to oversee parliamentary elections in Kosovo scheduled for Feb. 9.
As I have previously written, Kosovo remains a thorn in the side of the Balkans. The Kosovar Governments intransigence, unwillingness to cooperate with the EU, and unilateral action against the Serbian minority threatens to undermine the regions stability. This raises a significant challenge to both the EU and NATO’s continued commitment to Kosovo, particularly at such a sensitive moment for the region when Western rapprochement with Serbia seems possible, and Russian interference in the region remains a major threat.
To highlight just how far from ok things are in the Balkans, in a visit to Montenegro this week Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman declared that the Jadran, a Yugoslav era (you read that right) military ship that currently forms part of the Montenegrin navy, is Croatian property and should be returned. There remains a considerable segment of Balkan politicians that are quite happy to foment nationalist conflicts with neighbouring countries for short-term and usually petty domestic political gains.
Likewise, Athens recently issued an official response to recent statements by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski of North Macedonia who indicated that Skopje does not consider their name dispute with Greece as resolved. This might represent the most absurd problem facing the Balkans, but it is a problem nonetheless. This is not a small matter; Macedonia has been making considerable gains in their standing with the West on major security issues (where they have proven they are an important partner) and likely feels rightly emboldened by their investments. Greece is equally important from a strategic standpoint and this represents yet another fault line within NATO.
Speaking of which, although the lengthy electoral crisis facing Bulgaria, (I have previously written on this subject here and here) which has lasted since March 2024, appears to have ended, it is far from clear the fix will hold. The new government, formed by the conservative Euro-Atlantic GERB-SDS coalition, the populist isolationist party There Is Such a People (ITN), and the pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is ideologically opposed to itself. If not untenable, this will at least promise problems for the West and likely signals a move, if not towards Moscow, at least away from Brussels. This will impact the situation in Ukraine in the immediate and could represent a segment of the Balkans moving further from the West in the long-term, creating further tension in the region and within NATO
Rising tensions not only among the Serb minority in Kosovo but between Belgrade and Pristina has already prompted NATO to strengthen its peacekeeping force in Kosovo (KFOR) in preparation for the election. The 4,500 troops provided by 29 Allied and partner countries has already been reinforced by a further contingent of 200 troops from the Italian mechanised infantry brigades ‘Sassari.’
Meanwhile Serbia faces serious domestic tensions, and after three months of mass protests against government corruption, events have reached the point that demonstrators are calling for a general strike and the government is threatening retaliation. Attacks on protesters are becoming more frequent and last week rammed his car into a crowd seriously injuring at least one protestor. With teachers out in force on the picket lines, Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has raised the possibility of dismissals in an attempt to stifle the protests.
Serbia is at a crossroads and the Government is on the defensive. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has accused the protesters of undermining constitutional order. In an effort to get control of the situation it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Vučić might seek to exploit the situation in Kosovo to create a foreign distraction from domestic woes. It’s worth remembering that Vučić is currently charting a fine line between Moscow and Brussels, recently offering to act as host to Trump-Putin talks over Ukraine.
It bears repeating that moving forward the West, that is NATO, the EU, and Washington need to be paying far far more attention to the Balkans, and more importantly to their often stagnated policies concerning the region. We are in a period of major strategic upheaval and the Balkans will, as they have always done, rise up and bite anyone who fails to appreciate their importance. The West would do well to pay closer attention to history.
Feature Photo: Stone Bridge, Prizren, Kosovo 2014. Wikimedia Commons, 2024.
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