11 July 2024
Prime Minister Trudeau is in Washington DC for the NATO summit this week where he and his team have been getting absolutely pummeled for Canada’s pathetic defence efforts, centring around our unwillingness to get serious about meeting NATO’s 2% of GDP spending benchmark. This has been to absolutely no one’s surprise but Trudeau’s team. Countless articles, not to mention American and NATO communications on the subject made it painfully clear this is what was going to happen.
The Trudeau Government has been repeating for some time that Canada is dedicated to reaching the 2% benchmark. The problem is the devil is in the details and there really hasn’t been any, which is what the ruckus was all about. The Trudeau Government’s best plan so far only sees it reaching 1.7% by 2030, a figure that the Parliamentary Budget Office has called into question, arguing it will be closer to 1.4%. Our NATO allies want more than words, they want to see a plan. When it became clear that these criticisms would not longer be kept behind closed doors, and the Americans were publicly taking the PM to the woodshed suddenly the Trudeau team (after a week of terrible press) released a rather belated announcement that he suddenly had a plan (lacking any clear details) to get to 2% by 2032. We are all left wondering how exactly.
The current situation and how it has played out is not very surprising when one looks at the larger picture. Trudeau has made it pretty clear in words and actions that he does not care about the CAF or defence spending. I think at this point this is an objectively true factual claim, not an opinion. This all feels very much like a kid writing a book report in the hallway after the teacher asks them to be handed in. This is all just media smoke to kick the can down the road and change the channel, there is no plan. The government announcement largely relies on the classic Trudeau strategy of, as my colleague Stewart Webb has put it, “re-pledging old pledges.” The submarine “program” which essentially boils down to “Hey, Canada is looking to buy submarines” (again with no real details) was re-announced as some sort of cornerstone of this 2% effort.
The Government has no plan and no interest in hitting 2% on defence spending. Instead, Canada is being dragged along kicking and screaming, giving in only to avoid the damage to foreign relations that failing to do so will have. And to be clear it will have mounting consequences for Canada in the global sphere. It is not enough to talk the talk, our allies require concrete abilities to effect change. Like it or not this is what foreign relationships are built on.
It is worth noting at this point that this is not a strictly Trudeau problem. Although the Conservative Harper Government maintained its commitment to the Afghan mission and our allies, it also gutted defence spending, just like the Liberals in the ‘decade of darkness.’ This is a systemic political issue we have let fester, and it has metastasized. To help right the ship, I have slapped together a list off the top of my head in 5 minutes on my phone (I am sure this will save the day) of 15 items the government could arguably move rather quickly on in the immediate to intermediate that would substantially assist in pushing towards 2%. I would start by saying many of these purchases could be accomplished under the high-priority essential equipment emergency procurement clause. This was done with both the CF-18s from Australia and recent small arms purchases (DMRs and sniper rifles). This would avoid much of the red tape that is strangling defence procurement and move these along at a very fast pace.
1) Reopen recruitment centres,
In the Harper era local recruitment centres with civilian staff, where most testing and processing could be done in a day, were shut down and the process moved online to save money. At the time it was warned this would severely damage recruitment numbers, particularly among the reserves, and it has. Reopening them would serve two goals at once, spend money and bring in recruits.
2) Increase CAF pay scale,
CAF pay has not kept up with inflation and the cost of living. We now have regular reports of CAF members who are homeless. Take the whole pay scale and literally multiply it by two. This would also help attract recruitment and improve retention.
3) Increase base housing,
See number 2, we have CAF members who are homeless. This is an intolerable problem to have. There is a great company (out of Italy I believe) called MADI that makes folding, modular A-frames. Pick up the phone, and place an order, it really can be that simple.
4) Buy self-propelled artillery systems,
Certain realities of modern warfare and our shortcomings concerning them have been made painfully clear since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One such shortcoming is our lack of self-propelled artillery systems. In fact, our artillery, like everything else is old and could use an update.
5) Build a proper Arctic base with air, road, and rail access
There is no need to expand on what has already been covered in exhaustive detail. The arctic is a critical strategic front. It would be a NATO pond were it not for Russia, and now China’s absurd claim of being a ‘near arctic power’ (get ready for another dash-line). With this the case a strategic NATO base in the North American Arctic, on a much grander scale than what Canada is currently pursuing is, I would argue an obvious necessity. In addition to providing an opportunity for a massive joint force base and training facility in the Arctic for not just the RCN, but Army and RCAF, it can equally serve as one for our NATO allies. Doing this properly would require it to be serviced by road and rail, as well as air which in turn would allow Canada to take much-needed steps to open the North.
6) LNG pipeline and terminal
Not all military spending is on the military. Ensuring energy supply security is a NATO strategic priority. Contrary to Prime Minster Trudeau’s absurd claim there is no business case for selling LNG to Europe, there is as the billion-dollar deals between Germany and Qatar demonstrate. That aside there is a clear strategic argument for building pipelines and LNG terminals. This would be easy to argue falls under defence spending in the same way that Belgium includes their rail infrastructure.
7) Establish a drone warfare centre
Another lesson from Ukraine is the importance that small drones and countering them will play in any future conflict. Loitering munitions, like suicide drones, will only become more prevalent in the battlespace and the technology will proliferate further. Remember that the first to use suicide drones in the battlespace was ISIS.
After a recent industry event on this point in Alberta it is becoming pretty clear that the CAF not only has a gap in drones but that Canada can play a very significant role in NATO on this front.
8) Buy shoulder launched anti-air & anti-armour systems
Again, from Ukraine, a very clear lesson is the undeniable importance of shoulder-launched anti-armour and anti-aircraft systems (Javelins, stingers and the like). In our desire to aid Ukraine, it has become clear we are in short supply of these essential weapons and that our venerated Carl Gustavs are extremely old.
9) Buy new tanks
Not to beat a dead horse but again, Ukraine has highlighted the state of Canada’s armoured corps…it’s not great. We need new tanks. We already use Leopards, it’s likely going to be Leopards we select next time around. We should step up and order them if that’s the case. This however is not so straightforward as the Germans are facing delays on this front. Alternatively, the Americans are, as always, absolutely lousy with kit, particularly in this category. This means if we made the step of going to the Abrams (Something worth a debate) we could at least get fast delivery. Yes, the Americans have scaled back on Abrams production, but the Polish got theirs pretty quickly.
10) Buy mobile ground-based anti-air / missile defence systems
Another lesson to be learned from the Ukraine War is the requirement for anti-air/anti-missile systems in a conventional war. We need air defence against planes, missiles and loitering munitions like suicide drones. See point 7.
11) Replace the aging Griffen fleet
I don’t think I need to explain why helicopters are mission-critical for a modern military. The Griffen helicopters are from the 90s. Enough said. We need new, there are options out there that Canada is familiar with after the process that led to what I would argue will prove to be the bad decision to go with the Cyclone to replace the Sea Kings. That said, it proves it can be done quickly when a government is properly motivated (Harper facing an election with nothing to show for it).
12) Purchase the proper modern kit for the reserves,
The Army reserve force and its equipment woes are something I am personally acquainted with. Troops are still being issued (sometimes broken) 82 pattern rucksacks when the CTS came out a decade ago. Much of their equipment is supplemented by personal purchases that they use daily (except for field exercises when they are sometimes forced to use issued garbage). I have personally hunted surplus stores with reservists for replacement kit, elements of sleep systems that are torn etc etc. It’s shameful and easy to fix since this kit is already approved, just get off your collective asses, bloody order more and issue it.
13) A plan to replace the Kingston Class MCDV
With all the talk of submarines and frigates (or destroyers depending on who you ask and when), there is a major naval capability hole that requires far more urgent attention than it’s getting and is arguably more important than submarines. Canada is desperately short of modern littoral combat coastal defence/patrol vessels. Now to be fair, Fincantieri and its subsidiary Vard signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Heddle Shipyards, Thales Canada and SH Defense, to establish the collaboration that will propose the Vigilance-class offshore patrol vessel (OPV) for the Royal Canadian Navy. There are also plenty of off-the-shelf options across NATO and Australia that are available. The Government just has to order them, arguably a much simpler process than the submarine procurement.
14) Expand CAF cyber warfare/security capabilities
Cyber attacks and social media disinformation in the battlespace are more prevalent. The Canadian-led NATO battlegroup in Latvia has been a target for several Russian disinformation campaigns. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine have occurred. It is also reported that China, Iran and other countries have created cyber attack units within their military spheres. I don’t know why I keep bringing up Stewart, but he even co-authored an academic journal article on how there should be a UN cyber-peacekeeping unit.
15) Small Arms and Combat Gear
Ask anyone in the CAF, our equipment is old, and our small arms are in rough shape. Most of our allies are replacing or in the process of looking to replace their rifles, machine guns etc. The Colt Canada nonsense has been explored time and time again. We are simply way too small a military to expect companies to submit bids when it means handing over IP and building them here at Colt Canada. It’s 90 or so jobs that likely could be preserved through other means. Likely the quickest option is to order abroad. Regardless, Canada needs to make a choice about a new weapons system or at the very least start placing orders to replace the existing system. The scale (as small as it is) is beyond current domestic capabilities and would require ages to scale up. This means we better hurry up and figure out what we’re doing on this one. For what it’s worth CZ bought Colt Canada which could simplify this problem considerably if we went with their gear. For what it’s worth I have had time on a CZ BREN and it is an outstanding rifle.
I realise most will (rightfully) look at this list and say, “easier said than done.” You may call me a lunatic and you are probably right, Stewart says it constantly. That said, I would still argue this is only as complicated as it is because we have chosen to make it so. These 15 items could be straight forward if we chose to make them so, it would also not only build up Canadian defence spending, it would do so in meaningful ways that will improve the CAF. I might be a lunatic, but you can’t steer a ship that isn’t moving, so first step is to put’er in gear.
Feature Photo: NATO – Meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Heads of State and Government, Washington DC, NATO, 2024
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