Ukraine has touted that it will attack Russia wherever it can, even internationally. However, it is becoming clear that Ukraine’s efforts in Africa are starting to backfire.
Russia is accusing Ukraine of opening an African front. However, this was after Ukraine conducted some operations in Sudan. The situation on the ground in Sudan has changed since Ukraine assisted the Sudanese government. Russia found a new ally that is strengthening its influence in the country and region. Russia’s newest accusations relate to the recent news in Mali and there is still a shroud of uncertainty.
In recent news, Andriy Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence, stated on a local Ukrainian TV channel that Malian rebels received “necessary” information to attack Malian troops and Russian mercenaries. On 25 July, separatist Tuareg fighters from the Cadre stratégique pour la défense du peuple de l’Azawad (CSP-DPA; Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad) killed 47 Malian troops and 84 members of Russia’s Wagner Group at a military camp at Tin Zaouatene near the Algerian-Malian border.
France’s LeMonde even goes as far as reporting that Ukrainian authorities are training the CSP-DPA with the use of drones. It is a claim that a CSP-DPA commander does not refute. The claim that the CSP-DPA is being trained on the use of drones and is receiving operational intelligence from Ukraine is deeply concerning.
In the aftermath of the battle and the spokesman’s comments, Mali has cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry is denying that Ukraine provided any support to rebels in the country and denies support for international terrorism. Niger soon followed suit by cutting ties with Ukraine after the news of possible Ukrainian involvement.
Ukraine is now denying the claim that its GUR spokesman made on local TV. The claim could have been made to boost Ukrainian morale as Russia has been making slow, but steady gains over the past few months.
A Sordid History of Rebellion
The CSP-DPA is an ethnic Tuareg rebel group that wants the self-determination of northern Mali. Ever since Mali gained independence in 1960, Tuareg rebellions have occurred. The fourth, and last major rebellion, was in 2012 with the Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA; National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad) attempted to initially take control of the country with an alliance of jihadist groups such as Ansar al-Dine, an al-Qaeda affiliate. The jihadists ousted the ethnic Tuareg movement during the rebellion and attempted to overthrow the country by themselves. It was this rebellion that sparked an international response which led to a UN peacekeeping mission and a French-led counter-terrorism operation as well. Terrorist groups have operated and flourished in the north of the country ever since.
The CSP-DPA denies any alliance or allegiance with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). JNIM is now the umbrella alliance of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and various other jihadist groups. JNIM’s influence continues to grow. For example, JNIM involved itself in tribal agrarian disputes between the Faluni and Dogons peoples in central Mali.
In recent months Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have all expelled Western military presences and have created a mutual defence pact – the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). All three countries are governed by military juntas and established their mutual defence pact in 2023 after the West African political bloc, ECOWAS, threatened to intervene in Niger after their military coup. All three countries have experienced a prolonged terrorist threat from JNIM, the Islamic State of the Greater Sahel (IS-GS) and other terrorist and criminal groups and their populations have become disgruntled and angry with the lack of progress in tackling these threats. The AES members in June 2024 signed a new pact that will lead to greater integration and possibly confederation.
Russia has been providing security assistance to these three countries in the form of mercenaries from the Wagner Group and its new reiteration as a state-run private military corporation. Its assistance has drawn outrage in the international community as its mercenaries have taken part in massacres and extrajudicial killings, such as the massacre at the Malian village of Moura.
The Russian state received payment in the form of natural resources for this assistance. These funds help prop up the Russian economy and its war in Ukraine. Russia will not remove its presence from Africa as it is too profitable and diplomatically Russia can be seen as an ally for those that the West has failed. Moreover, countries that are welcoming a Russian presence are satisfied with the security for resources agreement that they made. Mali, for instance, is benefiting from closer Russian ties as Russia is providing attack helicopters, fighter jets and transport aircraft to develop the Malian Air Force.
Western Unreliability
This is why Ukraine’s Everywhere War on Russia is bound to fail. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdrew themselves from any Western support on their War on Terror. They have withdrawn themselves from Western diplomacy and economic assistance. They have embraced the support of Russia. Ultimately, this is because the West has failed their populations, and governments, during their war on terrorism. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan also feeds the insecurity that the West is a partner that will not see the war through. It is even a concern that Ukrainian, and NATO, officials are concerned about Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Military juntas have taken the opportunity to provide a new avenue through promises and a reorganization of alliances. Those alliances include Russia and will also centre, and entrench, around Russia’s axis – China and Iran. Russia has only been able to grab hold of this opportunity, not only in the Sahel but in Sudan and Central African Republic, because the West has given it with our inability to be a reliable international partner.
Featured Photo: “Le Mali confronté aux sanctions et à lavancée des rebelles islamistes, c. 2012” – Wikimedia Commons, 2024