20 March 2025
This is not an op-ed that I thought I would be writing – one with a personal story. I have discussed the F-35’s appropriateness to the Canadian environment in public, in numerous op-eds in Canada’s media, and an academic article for the Canadian Foreign Policy Journal. I have discussed how, traditionally, stealth material does not do well in cold weather, how a single-engine plane is vulnerable to bird strike in the Arctic, and so forth.
Canada announced it will spend $18 billion on a new helicopter fleet. It garnered some media attention that it will be tasked with potential F-35 crashes — but the Griffons require replacement, and it is not their sole task. Again, though, F-35 pilot retrieval has been expressively stated.
But the recent talk of the F-35 “kill switch,” which the Pentagon has denied, has forced me to recollect my experience in Ottawa. This experience demonstrated that our allies have been apprehensive about the F-35’s effectiveness for some time.
While I was aligned with two think tanks in Ottawa and tasked with examining the Harper government’s defence procurement file, I was approached by a political party staffer at an event, and we started discussing the file. This was a common occurrence at the time, given the op-eds in the national media and the various reports we were publishing.
The discussion moved onto the F-35, and the party staffer maladroitly started asking about the “F-35 Delta.” Anyone who is aware of the F-35 knows that there are only three variants—F-35A (conventional takeoff), F-35B (VTOL), and F-35C (Carrier Takeoff). Delta was not part of the equation…until the staffer alluded to a rumour that American F-35s would perform better than F-35s of the Allies.
This led to a personal mission. I had many discussions with industry officials and military attaches within the Ottawa circles and deep-dived into requested documents from the US government and whatever I could get my hands on. Some of our allies had performance concerns and were interested in finding out if I found anything. I will admit that it became a bit of an obsession – imagine if I were to discover this and what it would mean globally.
There was no conspiracy to say, but it was very much like the development of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle – Israel would have access and the permission to alter the F-35 source code for their fighter jets. If you have not watched The Pentagon Wars (yes, the full movie), which is the only defence procurement comedy based on a true story, I suggest you do. For the Bradley, Israel made many changes to the vehicle, which begrudgingly had to be adopted for the US – a vehicle also designed by a diverse services committee (watch the movie).
The conclusion was that, in theory, there would be no difference in performance between an American F-35 and any other. However, the issue to bear was a bit more technical, and unfortunately, there would be differences between aircraft, but not because of performance conspiracy.
Delivered F-35s are not complete. Upgrades to fighter jets are known as “blocks.” The F-35, back in 2013, had 7 blocks outlined. Lockheed Martin provided a timeline to the Norwegian government, and Block 7 was to be completed in 2021. Last August, Lockheed Martin announced that the major upgrades of Block 4 were completed, and those would sharpen the F-35. In March 2024, it was announced that the full production rate had been achieved with over 990 F-35 fighter jets delivered to the US and international partners. So far, there are 3,568 F-35s sold to the US and international partners; that is, 3568 planes will require Block 5-7 upgrades, stealth material to be reapplied, and software maintenance and upgrades. That is where the performance backlog will occur. For instance, Canada will probably have to send its F-35s to Fort Worth, Texas, for reapplication of stealth material. Depending on international maintenance contracts and the global supply chain that the F-35 partner program has created, backlogs will occur. Performance discrepancies and also the number of aircraft operationally ready will be impacted.
Canada and the F-35
There have been musings that Canada could diversify its fleet and buy some Gripens. Canada would need two training programs for pilots, maintenance crews, and the different supply chains. Due to their stealth material, F-35s need environmentally controlled hangers, which would mean two different hangers. The costs of having two other aircraft are immense. Creating a massive procurement, maintenance, and supply chain issue is one way Canada can achieve its 2% NATO commitment. Still, it is not one that Canadian taxpayers would accept with open arms.
It is frustrating that these conversations, which started over a decade ago, are now reawakened due to Trump.
The likelihood of Canada withdrawing from the F-35 programme in 2013 was harsh but feasible. The Harper government put money into the F-35 development fund as its partners had done. This also meant that research and development contracts were given to academic institutions and the Canadian aerospace industry. In turn, components of the F-35 are built in Canada, like the other F-35 partners (think again about that international supply chain). Initially, that money returned more than the money put in due to those research and development contracts.
Canada is under contract for its first 16 planes and other fighter jets; well, some of their components are built in the US – and the US could block any potential European fighter jet sales due to those components.
Again, this is a conversation that we should have had over a decade ago and not now. Due to the supply and management logistics and the contracts awarded and signed…it’s too late for Canada to back out. Add to that the possibility of a Trump administration blocking defence sales of a replacement fighter jet….and not additional contracts…., and it’s too late.
How much of a lemon the F-35 will be for Canada is unknown. I hope I have been wrong for 13 years just for the sake of the Canadian Armed Forces, the Royal Canadian Air Force, its pilots, service people, the defence and security of Canada, and its foreign objectives. I don’t think it is a humble pie, but I will eat it soon.
Feature Photo: “F-35 at RAF Waddington, c. 2019”, UK Mod Imagery, 2025