“I will be your arbitrator. I will be your arbitrator. I can solve anything.” – Trump on India-Pakistan

Echoing what his State Department said the previous day, President Donald Trump offered to arbitrate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. Trump states that the reason why India and Pakistan ceased military action was because he threatened that trade with the US would stop. The post-Pahalgam military action did not seem to escalate further from the cross-border attacks from either side. The US did intervene, but India’s continuing suspension of the Indus Water Treaty is detrimental to Pakistan, and there seems to be no American mediation between the two sides. The Indus Water Treaty suspension increases the likelihood of another terrorist attack on India.

If this sounds familiar, it is because Trump has portrayed himself as the great diplomatic mediator. Trump insisted that he would be able to solve the Ukraine War within 24 hours of taking office. It’s been 134 days. It still seems that the Trump administration is fixated on not supporting Ukraine and blaming the war on them.

Trump also stated that within two weeks, he would know if Russia was “tagging” the US along and would adapt US policy to punish Putin. The two-week timeline has passed, and Russia’s drone and missile campaign on Ukrainian civilians has only increased. No punitive measures have been adopted against Russia.

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels conducted an Anti-Access/Area Denial campaign in the Red Sea, which included anti-ship missiles and boat drones. President Trump came to a ceasefire agreement that the US would stop bombing Houthi assets if the Houthis stopped interrupting the vital shipping lane that is the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The Houthi rebels continue to attack Israel, as it was not part of the Oman-mediated ceasefire deal.

Which now leads us to Israel’s strikes on Iran. Trump also was unable to dissuade Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government from launching “pre-emptive” strikes on Iran as the United States was in talks with Iran over a revised nuclear deal. The premise behind the negotiations was to delay Iran’s ability to enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon.

Now, with Israel’s strikes, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran has enough enriched fissile material for nine atom bombs. Netanyahu also states that Israel’s strikes will last as many days as it takes to eliminate the threat to Israel. Israel informed the United States that it would take unilateral action to protect its interests. The United States told its embassies and allies in the region that a strike would happen. In that notification, the United States stated it would not take part in Israel’s action. But there was no notice that the United States would continue talks with Israel to dissuade them from this action. President Trump states that he wants peace, but to achieve it, there needs to be a de-escalation.

The Trump administration is attempting to resolve one conflict haphazardly, without making a genuine effort, whether through military assistance, diplomacy, or the use of carrots or sticks in the form of sanctions. It then moves on to the next conflict, and then moves on again. The term around Wall Street is TACO -Trump Always Chickens Out. No, President Trump does not want to put in an actual effort because the way the administration is run does not allow for a lengthy process of more than one news cycle (about two weeks).

Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize. Maybe give him one, and the US “efforts” will normalize. Or at least do less damage to America’s diplomatic and soft power.

 

Feature Photo: “Trump saluting at White House, 2020” – Flickr, Trump Presidential Library, 2025

By Stewart Webb

The editor of DefenceReport and Senior Analyst, Stewart Webb holds a MScEcon in Security Studies from Aberystwyth University and a BA in Political Science from Acadia University. A frequent guest on defence issues for CTV National News, and other Canadian media outlets, his specialities include commentary on terrorist/insurgent activity and Canadian defence issues. Stewart can be contacted at: swebb@defencereport.com