As Donald Trump mulls over the US striking Iran, the question is whether the conflict can continue for another two weeks.
To dismantle Iran’s nuclear development, three nuclear facilities need to be targeted. Israel has targeted Natanz and the Isfahan nuclear facilities. The third that Israel cannot target is Fordow, which is deeply underground. The centrifuges, key to uranium enrichment, have likely been destroyed at the Natanz facility. Buildings have been damaged or destroyed at the Isfahan facility, where the IAEA had planned an expansion. Fordow is beyond Israel’s capabilities as it is vastly bunkered underground.
Israeli pressure concerns the American bunker-busting 30,000-lb earth-penetrating GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator on the Fordow Nuclear Enrichment Facility. The facility itself is estimated to be 80-90 metres (260-295ft) underground. The GBU-57 can penetrate up to 60 meters (200ft). Given this, it may take multiple runs to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility with the GBU-57, which means a greater US commitment than one plane, one bomb.
It would not be the first time that President Trump has used a MOAB. Trump ordered its use on an Afghan tunnel network in Nangarhar province in 2017. However, that one was the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb and not the ground penetrating variant discussed for Iran.
A Fortnight of Capabilities
The significant factor in this campaign is that Iran has more missiles than Israel has interceptors. If it genuinely were a numbers game, this would be a glaring issue. However, Israel has achieved air dominance over Iran. Israel is now conducting daylight bombing attacks on Iran and, significantly, Tehran. This signifies that Israel is not concerned with the threat of what is left of Iran’s air defences. It will add a significant strain as the Israeli Air Force will have to continue bombing missions on Iran while depleting its precision-guided munitions (PGMs). Israel can target as many targets as it can, but it also has a finite amount of PGMs, which will mean that Israeli strikes might also reduce in number. The balancing act would be to ensure that the boot is still on the neck of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone response to Israel.
Iran is facing a similar issue, and that is the deployment of its missiles. It is estimated that Iran has 3,000 missiles that can be deployed against Israel, but the number fired towards Israel has diminished since day one. More than 400 missiles and a thousand drones have been launched toward Israel since Friday. From the 13th-16th, Iran launched over 370 ballistic missiles towards Israel. On the 18th, the first Iranian salvo consisted of about 15 missiles, and the second consisted of about 10. One can also see that Iranian missile launches have overwhelmingly decreased since the first day of the conflict. Israeli air dominance means that Iran lost the mobility of its forces. Israel can detect and intercede on Iran moving missiles to launch pads or, moving anti-air assets (if they exist) to those launch areas, or targeting mobile missile launchers. It should also be noted that Israel destroyed a significant amount of Iran’s air defences in October 2024. This further allowed Israel to achieve air dominance over Iran within the first 36-48 hours of the Operation Rising Lion campaign.
Iran is limiting its missile capability to save it for another day, but still manages to send off enough missiles and drones to serve as a reprisal against Israel’s attacks. But Israeli strikes might also diminish over time.
Israel does continue to target the military and governing structure of the Iranian regime. There have been reports of Israeli attacks on Iranian banking infrastructure and cryptocurrency reserves. There might be an eventuality that Israel will run out of C5ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) targets before the US intervenes, or potentially, the Iranian regime falters. It is a matter that Israel may run out of PGMs worthy of deploying.
American and Iranian-backed Intervention
The United States have been moving assets toward the Middle East. But for many, the overall disappearance of Iran’s Axis of Resistance has been deafening.
A third U.S. carrier group is set to deploy near Israel next week. This will provide additional air assets if the conflict widens. IT should also be noted that the United States has already deployed over two dozen KC-135 and KC-46 air refuelling tankers to the Middle East. One does not deploy over two air refuelling tankers for a couple of B-2 bombers with GBU-57s. Redeploying aircraft carrier groups and refuelling aircraft can be seen as a show of force, but it is an expensive one. The stakes are high, though, as it could mean either the Iranian nuclear program is eliminated or survives another day.
The key phrase from Trump was “within two weeks”. A decision is unlikely until the third US aircraft carrier strike group arrives in the region. This will provide additional air assets, including strike and surveillance, that will augment a heightened air campaign against Iran.
The silent wild card has been Iran’s Axis of Resistance, an assortment of Iranian-backed militias and terrorist groups that were meant to serve as a destabilizing force. So far, only one of the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militias has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and American bases in the region will be targets. Three drones were launched at a US base in western Iraq, according to the Long War Journal. Iran’s Axis of Resistance has not dedicated itself to assisting Iran in its attacks on Israel. No missiles or attacks, and only one threat declaration, one that is aimed at the American presence in the region.
We are now at an impasse regarding Operation Rising Lion. The Israelis cannot deliver that final blow to Fowdor unless the United States gets involved. Iran must limit its reprisals to ensure that it retains some missile reserves as a deterrent, and that is, if Iran can ever rebuild an integrated air defence network in the future.
If the Iranian regime can continue to govern, and the removal of the Iranian regime is a broader goal, but not an explicit objective of Operation Rising Lion.
Feature Photo: “B-2 Refueling Mission”, DoD Imagery, Air National Guard Staff Sgt. Whitney Erhart, 2025