The United States has taken out three of Iran’s nuclear facilities that were integral to its nuclear weapons programme in its Operation Midnight Hammer. More than one hundred aircraft were deployed, and 14 30,000lb GBU-57 Ground Penetrating Munitions were used.

It was not just the nuclear facilities that were targeted yesterday. Israel targeted an Iranian commander and other terrorists. Israel killed Iran’s coordinator with Hamas. Israel claims that Saeed Izadi helped plan and coordinate Hamas’ October 7th attack. Izadi is also suspected of arming and helping finance the terrorist organization. In addition to that, the head of security of the late Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli strike in Iran while heading for the Iraqi border. Israel has conducted a decapitation campaign since June 13 targeting nuclear scientists and, more importantly, for the ongoing operation, the leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force.

What options does Iran have?

Iran can continue to launch ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and US military bases and interests in the Middle East. Iranian ballistic missile launches have decreased in number since June 13, which suggests that Iran is holding its missile capability back either to prolong its reprisal attacks or to safeguard its inventory from Israeli strikes. It should be noted that Israel is conducting further strikes against military bases and infrastructure in western Iran and Tehran. Suicide drones are an option as the launchers are much smaller than ballistic missile launchers and are less expensive.

Given that the US has two carrier strike groups in the region, and a third on its way, this means that the US has a significant air force to add to an air campaign over Iran. Israel already has achieved aerial superiority over Iran and can strike targets with relative ease. Couple aerial dominance with real-time intelligence, and Iran has lost the mobility factor for its military forces.

The Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz; however, the ultimate decision lies with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If Khamenei approves, it will most likely be done with Iranian sea drones and sea mines. Iran has up to two dozen submarines, including three Tareq-class submarines that can be used for minelaying. Iran also has a mix of vessels for asymmetrical warfare and conventional ships, including frigates. The issue, of course, is which assets to utilize in a shooting war with the US Navy and which ones to hold back in the hope of using them later. The ultimate destruction of the Iranian Navy would be another devastating blow to the Iranian regime, just after they lost their nuclear weapons programme.

It is more likely that Iran would opt for an asymmetric approach to countering the US-Israel campaign. Iran has already been jamming GPS systems in the Strait of Hormuz, and these efforts are expected to intensify. Since June 13th, almost a thousand ships in the strait have experienced GSP interference. Interference is not enough; for Iran, something else must be done.

All Quiet on the Axis of Resistance

Iran created, and built up, a so-called Axis of Resistance –  several regional terrorist and insurgent groups that would act both as a deterrent for conflict, and as a punishing force if a conflict were to ensue. The Axis is comprised of Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Shiite militias in Iraq.

Houthi rebels stated that they are ready to attack shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah and Hamas have both been quiet since Israel started its air campaign almost two weeks ago. Iran-backed Iraqi Shiite militias have ramped up targeting US military bases in the region, but nothing significant has happened.

Ultimately, the Israeli response after the 7 October attacks should be considered as a broader campaign that has led to the present. Hezbollah was once believed to have over 150,000 missiles in Lebanon, and its deceased leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once claimed that he had 100,000 fighters under his control. In November 2024, Israel launched an attack on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, which led to the dismantling of Hezbollah leadership and a vast degradation of Hezbollah’s arsenal and capabilities. Israel’s campaign in Palestine has mooted Hamas as a credible threat. Israel has launched attacks on the Houthi-held Port of Hodeidah.

The Axis of Resistance is unable to provide Iran with serious assistance. It can be compared to a game of whack-a-mole; however, if any belligerent were to pop their head up, they would meet the air assets of the US Navy and the Israeli Air Force. Or keep your head down, hope that it will breeze over, save your assets and rebuild. Iran and its Axis might do this in the hope that it can be the force it was before the October 7th attacks. That is barring regime change in Iran….

 

Feature Photo: “Iranian Submarine at December 2019 Iranian Naval Ceremony” – Wikimedia Commons, 2025

 

By Stewart Webb

The editor of DefenceReport and Senior Analyst, Stewart Webb holds a MScEcon in Security Studies from Aberystwyth University and a BA in Political Science from Acadia University. A frequent guest on defence issues for CTV National News, and other Canadian media outlets, his specialities include commentary on terrorist/insurgent activity and Canadian defence issues. Stewart can be contacted at: swebb@defencereport.com