Post-Pahalgam Retaliatory Strikes: The Rise in Water Related Terrorism

6 May 2025

India and Pakistan are once again on the cusp of a potential armed conflict over Jammu and Kashmir. There have been instances of small arms fire exchange across the border. Pakistan recently test-fired its tactical surface-to-surface Abdali missile in the most recent show of strength. In an alarming escalation, India launched missile strikes against nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. It is believed that India targeted the headquarters of two terrorist groups within Pakistan – Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Last week, Pakistani intelligence suggested that an Indian strike would occur. Events are unfolding, but at the moment, it is being reported that an exchange of artillery fire is happening and that Pakistan has downed 5 Indian fighter jets, although it seems that three Indian fighter jets crashed in India’s Jammu and Kashmir.

The armed escalation and the recent tensions all began with five armed terrorists from The Resistance Front (TRF) entering the densely forested Baisaran Valley (7km from the town of Pahalgam) and killing 26 civilians, injuring 20 others, in Jammu and Kashmir.  TRF claimed responsibility while justifying its actions as India permits non-Kashmiris to work and live in Kashmir, insinuating there is an Indian policy to settle Kashmir.

TRF is either the new militant arm or a supported offshoot of LeT. LeT gained international notoriety for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. TRF has been responsible for attacks in the region since 2019, when it was established. In its messaging, TRF has used non-religious symbols and rhetoric, and by doing so, would suggest the TRF is attempting not to be branded as an Islamic terrorist group but a localized resistance group. This would not be entirely a diversion from LeT as its madrassas are known for teaching science and English.

India’s Operation Sindoor is enough for a revitalized insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. Still, there is another retribution policy that India has undertaken that will further push Pakistanis into the arms of terrorism.

One of India’s first retribution policies was to suspend the Indus Water Treaty.   The Indus Water Treaty, which was established in 1961, ensures a water supply for 80 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural lands. India also conducted an unscheduled flushing of the Baglihar and Salal dams in Jammu and Kashmir on the Chenab River. Flushing of these dams typically takes place during the monsoon season. Flushing the dam means that the dam’s reservoir is emptied to flush out the silt and debris that have built up over time. The Indian government gave no notification to the Pakistan government that the flushing would occur.

It is seen that this unscheduled flushing is to prepare them for increased storage of water and to regulate the flow of water to Pakistan. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi essentially confirmed this when he stated that: “Earlier, even the water that was India’s right was flowing out of the country. Now, India’s water will flow for India’s benefit, it will be conserved for India’s benefit, and it will be used for India’s progress.” The water flow through the Chenab River has been reduced, with Pakistani authorities claiming up to a 90 percent drop in water supply.

For over a decade, Hafiz Saeed, the leader of LeT and its political wing, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, has been declaring repeatedly that India has been conducting “water terrorism” on Pakistan and Kashmir. Saeed has blamed India for the droughts experienced by Pakistanis and also for the flooding. There have been instances where India has had to release water from its dams to mitigate flooding in India, causing an increase in water downstream into Pakistan.

One such example was in 2023. India released water into the Sutlej River to mitigate the floods in India’s northern regions. Consequently, tens of thousands of farmers in central-eastern Pakistan had their crops submerged, resulting in crop failures. This is a noteworthy propaganda subject for the group. A 2013 study of over 900 biographies of deceased Let fighters suggested that people from the agricultural sector account for 13 percent of the Let’s recruits. The current percentages are unknown, but after a decade of water woes, it is plausible that recruitment from the agricultural sector has increased. If it has not increased, then the reaction actions of the Indian government will give a recruitment boost to the terrorist group.

Suspending the Indus Water Treaty has not occurred until now. There have been threats under the Modi government. Following the 2016 Uri attack, Indian Prime Minister Modi threatened to revoke the treaty, stating that “blood and water cannot flow together”.  In the past, the treaty and the governmental communication over water sharing continued during heightened tensions and war. It was seen as a stabilizing treaty as both countries continued discussions at some level. It was one of many water sharing treaties among hostile regions that the World Bank encouraged in the 1960s and 70s.

It has been rumoured that Pakistan increased security for Hafiz Saeed in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. Saeed’s manor is believed to be in Jahor Town, in Lahore’s densely populated city. An Indian missile purportedly hit a mosque which Saeed supervised in Muridke, near Lahore.

Pakistan has utilized the insurgent and terrorist groups to sustain its interests in Kashmir and Afghanistan for decades. Following India’s reprisal attacks and the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, it is likely that activity will be resurgent in groups such as the RTF, LeT and JeM. The only question is what impact will the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty have on radicalization, and to what degree will these groups have direction given from the Pakistani government?

Feature Photo: “Pahalgam in Jammu & Kashmir” – Wikimedia Commons, 2025

Inset Photo: “Hafiz Saeed” – Wikimedia Commons, 2025