28 October 2024
On 16 October, American B-2 Spirit bombers attacked Houthi targets in Yemen for the first time, targeting five hardened underground weapons storage sites around Yemen’s capital Sanaa and the Houthi stronghold of Saada. An undisclosed number of B-2 bombers were reported to have flown from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, seemingly flying west towards Australia where they likely refuelled in the air on their way to Yemen. It is the first confirmed use of the aircraft since they targeted Islamic State in 2017. These underground storage sites were reportedly used by the Houthis to store anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles and suicide drones used to attack maritime traffic in the region.
US officials said the bombers were in the region as part of a training exercise and the Pentagon opted to “take advantage of their presence as an opportunity to target the underground sites.”
Australian defence officials confirmed that Australia facilitated these airstrikes “through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia.” Australian officials did not confirm the refuelling over their country, but it makes sense, given the distances from Missouri to Yemen. The US maintains large jet fuel reserves in Australia at Tindal and Darwin which facilitate operations in the region. The US has also already begun constructing facilities worth hundreds of millions of dollars in Northern Australia to support various aircraft, including B-52 bombers. In mid-August, the US Air Force deployed three B-2 stealth bombers to RAAF Base Amberley for the first time in two years as part of a Bomber Task Force operation.
These latest strikes were accompanied by a statement from US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin: “The United States will not hesitate to take action to defend American lives and assets; to deter attacks against civilians and our regional partners; and to protect freedom of navigation and increase the safety and security in these waterways for US, coalition and merchant vessels. We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that there will be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks.”
What It Means and the Strategy So Far
The timing of this attack suggests it was aimed at sending a message to Iran about the dangers of escalation in the face of an impending Israeli strike which occurred in the early hours of 26 October.
What it does not suggest – and this is very unfortunate – is that the US has suddenly got serious about eliminating the Houthi threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If it was serious, it would have engaged in a sustained air campaign to destroy Houthi weapons and infrastructure and eliminate their leaders and command structure.
Since the Houthis began attacking shipping in the aftermath of the 7 October attack against Israel, American action against the Houthis has been relatively muted. It has assembled a naval coalition which has shot down drones and missiles headed toward shipping – and naval vessels.
The surrounding Arab nations are unwilling to join the naval coalition publicly, besides Bahrain, which hosts the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. The Saudis and the Emirates, previously at war with the Houthis, have not joined the coalition as they seek a peace deal in Yemen, and rapprochement with Iran and are wary of being targeted themselves. Even the Egyptians, who have lost billions of dollars in revenue from these attacks, have not joined.
Any public Egyptian participation in international naval efforts to secure the international shipping lane would be seen both domestically and regionally as indirect support for Israel in its military operations in Gaza. With little Arab support, the US has, along with partner countries like the UK, struck Houthi targets in Yemen in response to these attacks.
But what it has not done is deter the Houthis from their continuing attacks on shipping.
These airstrikes have largely been retaliatory strikes to specific Houthi attacks, with Pentagon statements describing them as “defensive strikes.” The official explanation for the attack – the bombers were in the region for a training exercise and the targets were seen as a convenient opportunity to strike – reveals the lack of a clear policy of targeting the Houthis wherever and whenever possible. This is understandable. The American public is war-weary and it would be politically unwise in election season to take any significant military action. Moreover, the US faces greater threats from its Great Power rivals in Russia and China. Any major conflict in the Middle East would risk drawing away attention from these greater threats, something Russia is keenly aware of and interested in precipitating.
On 24 October, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia provided the Houthis with targeting data. Despite the forming of an international naval coalition to combat the Houthis, occasional bombings of targets in Yemen and press statements, Houthi attacks have not been stopped.
Let’s not forget that US and UK planes previously struck underground storage sites in Yemen in January of this year. The Pentagon said then it was confident those strikes had degraded the Houthi’s capabilities to conduct further strikes. These strikes did not prevent continued attacks.
The strategy that the Biden administration has adopted against the Houthis is careful and conservative, aiming to target weapons and not leaders of the organization or their Iranian trainers to prevent escalation in the Middle East. While the number of Houthi attacks has somewhat decreased, they have not stopped. Traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is still down significantly. This careful strategy seems somewhat impotent compared to Israeli actions to dismantle Hamas and the Iranian proxy Hezbollah. Israel has, in a short time, reportedly destroyed half of Hezbollah’s missile stockpile, which it has spent decades accruing. It has also killed the leaders and other senior leadership of both groups.
Though the group is being aided by Iran and Russia with the provisions of weapons and intelligence, it is unlikely the US will do anything until after the November election.
Why do the Houthis target shipping?
The Houthis began their attacks on global trade passing through the busy Red Sea corridor after Israel began its war of retaliation for the attack of October 7 against the terrorist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They promised to target all ships heading to Israeli ports, even if they did not pass through the Red Sea. Their attacks have targeted ships from multiple countries, including Russian-owned oil tankers. However, this public solidarity with the Palestinians is largely a recruiting tool. The Houthis do not exactly promote a coherent ideology. Their main espoused beliefs can be summed up in their slogan of “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, damnation to the Jews, victory to Islam.”
The Costs of the Houthi Attacks
Attacks on shipping have hit the Israeli and Egyptian economies the hardest in the narrow corridor that sees 12 percent of the world’s ocean-going trade pass through. The Israeli Red Sea port of Eilat has reportedly been brought to a standstill as ships have been diverted south around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds around two weeks to the journey of ships from Europe to Asia and increases shipping costs – in some cases up to three times as high as before.
Israel, reliant on the importation of natural resources, has seen enormous price rises which are being transferred to consumers. For Egypt, the lost ship traffic has meant a sharp decline in revenues from the Suez Canal. The canal’s revenues had dropped by nearly 25 percent from $9.4bn in 2022-2023 to $7.2bn in 2023-2024
A Shift in Strategy Required
With a seemingly implacable resolve, the Houthis will be a more capable enemy in the future, barring major escalation against them. Satellite footage shows they are digging in, expanding their construction of underground weapons sites and fortifications. Based on this, it seems obvious that their threat should be dealt with sooner rather than later.
Moreover, as Israel deals blow after blow against Hamas, Hezbollah and now their patron Iran, the opportunity to strike the Houthis should not be wasted. Some of the latest reports suggest that Israel’s strike on Iran may have eliminated a large portion of Iranian air defences and set back its ballistic missile production years. It still retains an estimated 2,000 ballistic missiles, however, and its drone production is unaffected.
Now that it must ration the use of its most potent weapons and has lost much of its air defences, Iran does not look as fearsome as before. With Iran and its proxy network reeling from successive attacks, now is the time to increase the pressure on the Houthis.
The Houthis have so far been resilient to military pressure against them, first from the Yemeni government, then the Saudis and now the Americans. The Houthis survived years of aerial bombardment by Saudi Arabian forces. Despite the bombardment, they were able to expand their capabilities. Houthi drone attacks increased from 2018 to 2019, shifting their attacks to Saudi Arabia which they maintained at a stable level from 2019 to 2020, according to ACLED data. ACLED records an all-time high of Houthi drone attacks in 2021, when the group introduced new commercial-grade drones that drop small explosives on targets rather than crashing into them.
While surviving years of a punishing air campaign is no easy task, it was made easier by Saudi military incompetence and indiscriminate bombing. Were the US to engage in a similar air campaign, it is likely the results would be drastically different.
Satellite imagery shows the Houthis are creating and enlarging underground facilities. Limited strikes will only encourage them to speed up this process – and dig deeper. As has already been seen, Arab powers cannot be relied upon to solve the Houthi question, cowed as they are by fear of Iran or lacking in competent military leadership. While this is frustrating, it is an unfortunate reality.
The US military has the capabilities to engage in a sustained and effective air campaign to degrade and destroy the Houthis. While the Houthis have publicly welcomed American involvement, it’s unlikely they would enjoy its full force. Moreover, the US already has the infrastructure – it has access to air bases – in the region to support a campaign of this type and a track record of successful degradation of the Islamic State as a territorial entity under Operation Inherent Resolve.
The campaign against Islamic State should be replicated in Yemen against the Houthis. On the ground, forces loyal to the Internationally Recognized Government like the Joint Forces on the West Coast must receive a surge in resources and training. Their forces number around 40,000 fighters and despite being outnumbered by the Houthis – who claim to have recruited 200,000 fighters in the last year – have a core of 4,000 experienced Republican Guard and Special Forces soldiers in the National Resistance Forces, led by Tariq Saleh.
US special forces or contractors should be embedded with them to assist in the coordination of air strikes and the provision of training and tactics. Air strikes should complement a ground offensive to remove the Houthis as territorial rulers in the West and North of Yemen.
It can accomplish this task without committing conventional ground forces or depleting military stocks needed for any potential war in the Pacific.
While it may be impossible to fully stamp out the Houthis – who may continue to exist as an organization – it is entirely possible to remove them as a threat to global shipping.
If free trade navigation in the Red Sea is the goal, the Houthi threat must be resolved.
Feature Photo: “B-2 Spirit Approach”, Air Force Staff Sgt. Jordan Castelan, US DoD Imagery, 2024