28 October 2024

Following the October visit of President Zelenskyy to the UK, questions were raised over evolving support from the UK for the Ukrainian war effort in its defence against Russia’s ongoing invasion. Zelenskyy has been on a European tour to discuss his “Victory Plan” which may propose some temporary concession of territory, but one of the main elements is for permission to be released for the use of Western long-range missiles to be deployed against targets within Russian territory.

To date, the UK has pledged £12.8bn of support for Ukraine since February 2022, of which £7.8bn is for direct military assistance. While there may have been questions raised on the direction of future support given the change in government earlier in the year, a continued £3bn has been pledged for 2024/25. The UK is providing both lethal and non-lethal weaponry, including tanks, air defence systems, and long-range precision strike missiles, though there are ongoing discussions about the use of these missiles.

The UK is also training Ukrainian jet pilots, though combat fighter aircraft are not part of this support. In addition, 45,000 Ukrainian personnel have been trained through Operation Interflex, an allied effort hosted by the UK.

The Labour manifesto at the last election pledged to “remain steadfast” in support of Ukraine, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey issuing a plan while in opposition. Since taking office the Defence Secretary has visited Ukraine and met President Zelensky, committing new resources including: 250,000 50 calibre ammunition; 90 anti-armour Brimstone missiles; 50 small military boats for river and coastal operations; 30 de-mining vehicles; 10 AS-90 artillery guns; 61 bulldozers for defensive construction; and supporting previously supplied AS-90s with new barrels, ammunition, and critical spare parts.

The UK Prime Minister has also welcomed President Zelenskyy to Downing Street, initially in July as the first foreign leader of his premiership, and more recently this month. Further, the Defence Secretary has updated the House of Commons on a new contract to supply air defence missiles in a statement in September.

Critically, however, as reported last week, the focus of this support remains defensive as confirmation emerged that the UK has not agreed to lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range missiles (with a range of up to 155 miles) in the wake of the most recent meeting at Downing Street. And while commentators appear to believe such an agreement between the US, UK and Ukraine is at the very least creeping closer, with the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirming discussions on long-range missile use were held in their recent meeting with Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson emphasised that support to Ukraine would continue to come across a range of methods.

Replying to reporters the spokesperson stated that “no war has ever been won by a single weapon and there’s no change in the government’s policy on the use of long-range missiles…These discussions aren’t focused on single pieces of equipment, they’re looking at strategic support for Ukraine.”

Ukraine has been following Russia’s supply chains with its domestically developed drone fleet. In late September, Ukraine was able to destroy the ammunition storage at Toropets, 300 miles within Russia, destroying over 2,000 tons of ammunition. But long-range missiles are not drones, they have sophisticated guidance controls that allow for a low-altitude flight, and the Storm Shadow has bunker-busting capabilities – which means that it is better suited to take out ammunition storage, command and control centres, and other important targets that are vital to Russia’s war effort.

The Netherlands is in the process of supplying a total of 24 F-16s to Ukraine and they have approved the use of the F-16 within Russian territory. The F-16s are going to be a prized piece of equipment for the foreseeable future as another means to eliminate Russian drones and ballistic missiles being launched in Ukraine. There will be instances that these aircraft will launch some munitions on the front lines, but due to the limited quantity of them they will be held back in safe territory. The importance of the Dutch statement is that it is another policy step aimed at dragging the rest of Ukraine’s allies – namely the US and Britain. We have seen this before when it came to providing anti-armour, artillery, tanks and everything else in between. It has taken individual partners to leap forward and then apply additional pressure on Ukraine’s allies as a whole.

Regardless of the specific operational direction, and the change in the UK government this year, it remains clear that UK support for Ukraine will indeed “remain steadfast” over the coming years. It is just going to need a bigger push from Ukraine’s allies to do more.

Feature Photo:” RAF Marham – Typhoon with Storm Shadow”, UK MoD, Defence Imagery – 2024

By David Heaton

David is an analyst with DefenceReport. He served as a city councillor on the City of York Council, and has worked as a volunteer in the campaign offices of Secretary of State John Kerry in Boston, and Andy Slaughter MP in London. He holds an MA(Res) in Democracy and Elections from the University of Manchester, a BA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the same institution, and a PGCE in Secondary History from Aberystwyth University. His specialist areas include US Government and Politics.