North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s Ukraine War is coming to a new chapter, one that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had coined “the first step to a World War”. It is becoming more widely believed that North Korea will be supplying soldiers to the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

In terms of the Russian-Ukrainian War, North Korea’s involvement is potentially becoming more complicated on two fronts: both in Ukraine and the Korean peninsula. North Korea has been supplying ballistic missiles and approximately half of the artillery ammunition that Russia needs to maintain this war. It has been speculated that Russia has provided military technology to North Korea in exchange that would it improve its missile program as well as tank and military aircraft projects.

Tensions have recently erupted on the Korean Peninsula. On 14 October, North Korea accused South Korea of flying drones over Pyongyang which purportedly dropped propaganda leaflets denouncing the regime. There has been a history of propaganda balloons being sent over the DMZ by South Korean interest groups and instances of North Korea sending garbage-dropping balloons toward the south – in fact, thousands since May 2024. Since the purported drone incursion, North Korea destroyed road and rail links between the two states. North Korea also vowed to permanently fortify the border, but the exact details are unknown.  North Korea also claims that 1.4 million North Koreans have applied to join the army during the recent drone row with South Korea. North Korea also amended its constitution proclaiming that South Korea is a hostile state.

There are reports from both Ukrainian officials and similar statements made by the South Korean Minister of Defence that some North Korean troops are operating in Ukraine and that more are on their way to assist Russian efforts. The details are not known of course. There are reports that Russia is creating a 3,000-strong Buryat (Asian-looking, derived from a Mongolic ethnic group from Siberia) Battalion that will reinforce Russia’s borders with Ukraine. Also, a battalion normally is comprised of 1,000 personnel.  There are other reports that the force will be comprised of 10,000 soldiers and will operate with Russian-held Ukrainian territory and possibly the front lines.

      KN-23 Launch

The Washington Post reported that North Korean officers are already in Ukraine observing Russian forces and studying the battlefield and that missile engineers may have been sent to assist with the deployment of the KN-23 missiles that North Korea has provided Russia. South Korea’s Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun claimed that it was highly likely that North Korea was sending soldiers to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops. Yong-hyun also told South Korean lawmakers that Ukraine’s claims of six North Korean military officers killed in Donetsk were likely to be true. There have been reports that an estimated 18 North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk and Brysan oblasts deserted their posts and are being sought after. The report of this was provided to Ukrainian state media by intelligence officers.

Russia is denying the claims that North Korean troops are denying that there will be any North Korean direct military involvement. The United States stated that it was alarmed by North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile threats. The United States stated that it could not confirm claims of North Koreans operating in Ukraine, but was monitoring the situation closely.

Not confirmed yet, but let’s brainstorm

Claims of North Korean troops have not been confirmed by NATO members. However, reports of activity are becoming more frequent and President Zelenskyy made his claims with European leaders and later with NATO members.

The addition of North Korean soldiers will be a benefit for the Russian military or a hindrance. North Korean soldiers have the advantage of being professionally trained and are probably trained with the same Soviet-styled “meat assault” strategy that Russia’s army is currently employing with heavy artillery strikes being followed by a charge of infantry. It is a strategy that is responsible for the daily intermittent gains that Russia has made on the battlefield for months, but also highly contributes to the 1,000+ casualties a day that Russia is facing.

Now many would look at the potential North Korean deployment of 10,000 troops and say that provides Russia a ten-day reprieve from its own troops from being killed. This potential 10,000 troop deployment would not just be front-line soldiers, but also artillerymen, medical support, logistical support, etc. This would be the trial run of integrating North Korean troops into the Russian military. They would have to overcome doctrinal differences, language barriers, and military cultural differences. North Koreans would be experiencing a 21st-century battlefield.

It is believed that North Korea’s military is comprised of 1.3 million people and has 600,000 in military reserves. This would be a significant personnel pool if Putin were able to tap into it. Putin would be able to avoid instituting a military draft and becoming unpopular because of it. There have been outcries that conscripts have been used as front-line troops. Violent crimes in Russia are on the rise due to Russian soldiers coming home with drug addictions, criminal backgrounds and PTSD. The North Korean military would stand to benefit from a 21st-century deployment in terms of experience.

But let’s take a step back. If North Korea were to tap into its military and send personnel abroad to Ukraine, it would have to shore up its defenses along the South Korean border to demonstrate a position of strength against South Korea and the United States which the regime is paranoid that may start a war. Blowing up bridges, and railroads and moving artillery south does seem like a logical precautionary step and as aforementioned, North Korea has done just that very recently.

Hero Kim Kun Ok unveiling

North Korea has much to gain as well. It is believed that Russia is aiding North Korea with its missile design and in other military equipment development endeavours. It seems logical that an increase in assistance for North Korea should mean that Russia will unlock more assistance. There is already a possible hint of what that improved assistance is – submarine technology. North Korea released photographs of its new submarine, the “Hero Kim Kun OK”. It is believed that North Korea could be developing a nuclear-powered submarine, which would be a significant technological jump. Hero Kim Kun Ok appears to be a modified Soviet-era Romeo-class submarine, however, those submarines were diesel-electric. Curiously, in August, North Korea reversed its policy of publicly registering its submarines with the International Maritime Organization. This probably signals that North Korea will expand its submarine fleet, but by also not registering them, it will mask the amount of potential nuclear-powered submarines and the existence of any. North Korea’s version of Khruschev’s boast that the Soviets were producing missiles like sausages, which was completely false.

Any improvement in military technology for North Korea will serve as a destabilizing factor for the region overall. Any destabilizing factor on the global stage is a win for Putin. The two countries have become closer and ratified a mutual defence cooperation pact, what desperation for both leaders to make an impact on the world and what will come of it will only be revealed in time to come.

 

Feature Photo: “Pyongyang 2015” – Flickr, Uwe Brodrecht, 2024

By Stewart Webb

The editor of DefenceReport and Senior Analyst, Stewart Webb holds a MScEcon in Security Studies from Aberystwyth University and a BA in Political Science from Acadia University. A frequent guest on defence issues for CTV National News, and other Canadian media outlets, his specialities include commentary on terrorist/insurgent activity and Canadian defence issues. Stewart can be contacted at: [email protected]