Tensions have risen again between Iran and the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Iran is, once again, accusing the Taliban of not adhering to the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Water Treaty. This treaty predates not only the Taliban movement but also the Iranian Revolution. Under the agreement, Afghanistan must provide at least 26 cubic meters per second from its dams into Iran.

 

Last year, water tensions between Iran and the Taliban led to border clashes. An exchange of heavy gunfire between Iranian border guards and the Taliban resulted in the deaths of two Iranian border guards. It also led to the Taliban taunting Iran on social media with Taliban General Mobin Khan gathering a bucket of water and later throwing off the dry side of a dam while jokingly proclaiming:” Take this and don’t attack us! We’re terrified!”.

The Helmand River supplies water for the Afghan Nimrooz Province and the Sistan region in Iran for domestic and agricultural water supply. No water has reached Iran’s Hamun Lake in three years and the environmental degradation has been devastating to the local environment. Hamun Lake once covered over 4,000 square kilometres, but now surrounding villages are abandoned and displaced populations are dispersed.

Iran’s water situation is alarming and is dealing with one of the most severe droughts in fifty years. The governor of Tehran has openly admitted the existence of the water crisis as over 260 cities faced severe water shortages last year. It is not something that can be hidden from the public eye as the water crisis has led to land subsidence. It is estimated that the ground under Tehran sinks up to 22 centimetres (9 inches) a year. It is also estimated that more than 800 Iranian towns and villages are also affected by land subsidence. In 2021, Iranians in Khuzestan province held a weeklong protest and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that the protestors could not be blamed and called for the government to address the crisis.

It is not just cities and towns that are affected. Iran’s agricultural industry is limping along, but the situation is critical. In October 2023, it was estimated that “92% of 95.2 million tons of crops is harvested from irrigated farms”. The report, “Water Management Dilemma in the Agricultural Sector of Iran” cited that Iran is also plagued with single-focused policies of having more dams and other engineering projects instead of examining how water is governed and its overall inefficient use. Even after a rainy year, it is estimated that drinking water and irrigation reservoirs are more than 80% empty. Drought is forcing Iranian farmers to give up their land and to other employment sectors and towns. Iran losing its components of its agricultural sector is a threat to the country.

Iran’s water crisis has been an issue that has experienced its ebbs and flows with the Iranian general public as the situation becomes more critical, however, it may come to its boiling point with Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s Water Blockade

It is not the first time that the Taliban have imposed their control over Iran’s water rights. In 1998, after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Taliban executed Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Shafar and also closed the sluices to the Kajaki dam on the Helmand until 2002.

In 2021, before the Taliban takeover, President Ghani inaugurated the Kamal Khan Dam and announced that Afghanistan would honour its commitments to Iran, but if Iran wanted more, negotiations for oil would have to occur.

The Taliban have been concentrating efforts on new dam builds in the eastern province of Zabul – suggesting a nationwide water retention plan. The Taliban completed the Zabul dam in June 2024. It spans 17.6 meters in length and 3 meters in height and can store 1670 cubic meters of water. It is not the only dam in Zabul that has been completed lately. In April 2024, another dam in Zabul with a length of 35 meters, and a height of 5 meters, providing a substantial storage capacity of 16,500 cubic meters.

It was not only the Taliban that expanded Afghanistan’s dam infrastructure as President Ghani oversaw the completion of the Kamal Khan dam on the Helmand River in 2021. It was not until 2022 that the Kamal Khan dam’s reserves were full – storing 52 million cubic meters of water and cutting off Iran’s water supply from the Helmand. It is responsible for irrigating more than 180,000 hectares of land. The project began in 1971 but suffered setbacks due to Iranian interference.

It is in Iran’s interest to get the water from Afghanistan flowing again. The recent calls from the Iranian government highlight this. The issue, of course, is how Iran will be able to solve this. Either military action is taken, which will cause an environmental disaster downstream. It is more likely that there will be a trade-off to the Taliban to ensure water access.

Recently, the Taliban reached a deal with Uzbekistan to process their high-sulphur crude oil and then to be shipped back via rail to Afghanistan for use. The other option stems from a rather odd request. General Sayed Abdul Basir Saberi, head of the logistics department of Afghanistan’s Taliban-controlled Ministry of Defense told Russia’s TASS that Afghanistan wishes to procure anti-aircraft defences from Russia. Those are certainly two options for Iran to consider.

The glaring issue although is the Sunni-Shiite divide between the Taliban and Iran. Iran’s IRGC may have ties with the Taliban still, but Iran also hosts leaders of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. On the other hand, Iran also purportedly hosts the leader of al-Qaeda, Hibatullah Akhundzada, as well. There is room for Iran to engage in trade discussions with the Taliban, it is just a matter of what costs Iran will pay.

 

Feature Photo: “Kajaki Reservoir, c. 2012” – Flickr, US Army Corps of Engineers, 2024

 

By Stewart Webb

The editor of DefenceReport and Senior Analyst, Stewart Webb holds a MScEcon in Security Studies from Aberystwyth University and a BA in Political Science from Acadia University. A frequent guest on defence issues for CTV National News, and other Canadian media outlets, his specialities include commentary on terrorist/insurgent activity and Canadian defence issues. Stewart can be contacted at: [email protected]