8 April 2025
America’s ‘Liberation Day’ brought forth a whole range of new tariffs against a wide range of countries. To put it politely, there is an extremely robust debate surrounding these decisions and their consequences. While avoiding a digression into that larger conversation, one consequence that should be gaining greater attention concerns the security impacts these tariffs hold for the Balkans.
The Balkans have been left reeling from what promises to wipe billions out of the region’s economy, with Serbia, Bosnia and Macedonia the worst hit. President Trump’s tariff package comes at the worst possible moment for the region. Furthermore, it risks not only impoverishing the region, but endangering Europe, as well as America, by expanding the war in Ukraine into a wider European conflict. Most of the Balkan nations face serious political turmoil such as mass protests, electoral challenges, failing government, corruption, ethnic strife, and/or the inability to form governing coalitions.
The region’s situation has been inflamed by a long-term concerted Russian disinformation campaign. Russia considers the Balkans to be within their sphere of influence, as well as the Achilles heel of Europe, a neglected soft spot where a small investment can yield big returns. The Russians are desperate, the war is Ukraine is not going well and Western support will make or break Moscow. The Balkans are essentially entirely NATO, apart from Serbia and Kosovo, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina which is an aspiring member under the Membership Action Plan. The region also contains several EU members. All of this Russia views as unacceptable and has sought to subvert. Chaos on any scale in the Balkans would seriously weaken Western ability to respond to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Furthermore, the destabilization of the Balkans leaves greater room for Russia to advance their aims of absorbing the region into the Russian sphere.
Tariffs will contribute to inflation, recession, wage stagnation. We in the West know precisely what follows this. With an overall distrust and dissatisfaction amongst the people with regard to their governments, poverty and desperation will inflame the situation and leave fertile ground for extremism and chaos. This would be the perfect breeding ground for Russian disinformation. Under those conditions fomenting anti-western sentiment in the light of what seems to be the failed promise of the West is an easy task. Failing this, the Russian doesn’t really care all that much about outcomes beyond sowing chaos and fomenting conflict.
Bulgaria has recently endured a lengthy electoral crisis from which it has only just emerged, which DefRep covered here and here, and has already felt the impact. The pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party which has criticised Bulgaria’s pro-Western stance, its support for Ukraine and ongoing sanctions on Moscow brought forward a non-confidence motion last Thursday. The motion failed with 150 votes against and 54 in favour in a parliament of 240 seats. The conservative GERB party has condemned the motion characterising it an attempt to derail Bulgaria’s planed adoption of the euro in 2026, a move that would consolidate its European integration.
The traction Russia’s anti-Western messaging can gain was driven home by Macedonian Foreign Minister Timcho Mucunski who issued a clear and public warning of growing Russian influence in the Balkans. His messaged targeted the EU specifically, arguing that the threat will rapidly metastasize if the EU does not rapidly make clear commitments to enlargement in the region. To quote, “We changed our flag, we changed our currency, we changed the constitution several times, we even changed the name of our country. All with the promise of a window.” His warning is clear, EU credibility is at stake, and that enlargement is necessary to counter Russian anti-Western messaging.
This is very difficult proposition to undertake at present. UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, recently urged Kosovo and Serbia to make (any) progress in normalization talks which have been a continual thorn in the side of the region. Kosovo finds itself at a delicate turning point, as discussed by DefRep here and there remain considerable challenges in working with the current Kosovar Government that has faced a wide range of allegations concerning the Serbian minority such as witness intimidation and questionable arrests.
In addition, this year is the thirtieth anniversary of the Dayton-Paris Agreement and things remain far from settled. Bosnia and Herzegovina continue to face challenges in ensuring that all three constituent peoples (The majority Catholic Croats, majority Muslim Bosniaks, and majority Orthodox Serbs) feel their guarantee of equal representation and rights is honoured. Currently all three feel a sense of dissatisfaction on this front.
Adding to the problem has been the implementation of new laws targeting the head of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik’s increasingly radical rhetoric. The fact Dodik started political life twenty years ago as a moderate speaks to the challenges present in Bosnia.
The High Representative, it should be noted, is not accountable to anyone, and to quote Željana Zovko, Member of European Parliament (EPP, HR) Vice-President of the EPP Group in the European Parliament, this is “somewhat strange given that, in principle, any decision should be open to legal challenge [and] means that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a semi-sovereign country with a kind of viceroy, as in a former colony, which is troubling given that the country is a candidate for accession to the European Union.”
To drive the point home concerning Russian intentions, Dodik has now fled to Moscow. This occurred after authorities in Sarajevo demand an international arrest warrant following a conviction for defying the Constitutional Court and advancing a separatist agenda. In Russia he was welcomed by Putin as a dignitary.
The long and short of it is this, regardless of what economic advantage the Americans feel they may gain from imposing tariffs on the Balkans (a dubious claim) the longer-term security risk to NATO and by extension the US far outweighs it. This is a question of penny-wise pound-foolish thinking. If the US wishes to pivot to confronting China exclusively and leave the Europeans to guard their rear in Europe (which is not an unreasonable request) than the Americans are best served by operating within its alliances and the best interests of those alliances by ensuring the region is reinforced by American actions, not destabilised.
If these economic measures targeting the Balkans are not reversed, they will contribute to the disintegration of stability of the region. A war will follow, and with it an opening for Russia and her anti-American allies to further erode the ability of the West to respond to efforts targeting the subversion the rules based international order and with-it American supremacy. Something that would be very bad for everyone involved.
Feature Photo: Trump showing a chart with reciprocal tariffs, 2 April 2025. Wikimedia Commons, 2025.
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